As we all know, shortage of materials will push up the cost and therefore offsets the effort people made to lower the cost for the prevalence of led downlight. To date, alternatives to arsenic, europium, gallium, indium and yttrium have not been found yet. Although aluminum, frequently used in heat sink, now has alternative material with good performance price ratio, the restriction still exists.
The integration of LED with other materials will generate a new market yet accounting for a small share in the lighting market at no more than 7% , while the packaged lumens lags far behind the current market, and therefore the demand growth will not exceed 5%. Not considering the growth, IEA determines that the lighting demand in 2050 will nearly be tripled over 2010′s level. This conclusion is applicable not only to emerging market, but also to OECD.
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